TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf859…a183backed G2 Esports77c30,000$23,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,920.481,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed G2 Esports77c19,866$15,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.2539964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Natus Vincere24c15,087$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.1357546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed G2 Esports75c13,500$10,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,37592254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…64acbacked Natus Vincere0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked Natus Vincere23c7,905$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.159636.5%35 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…122bbacked Natus Vincere8c5,924$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.94057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Natus Vincere16c5,604$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.4397527.8%271 W · 704 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…5442backed Natus Vincere19c5,048$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.844560%27 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Natus Vincere24c4,955$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18037640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Natus Vincere27c4,410$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.5536334.4%125 W · 238 L-21.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Natus Vincere30c4,148$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.3854555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere24c4,052$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.9475942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Esports78c4,022$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.62,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked G2 Esports79c3,832$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.6734448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Natus Vincere29c3,616$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.5986136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Natus Vincere26c2,904$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76713831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Natus Vincere26c2,893$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e1…8f69backed G2 Esports78c2,500$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed G2 Esports79c2,298$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.17758.4%45 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports77c2,221$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.831,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Natus Vincere29c2,137$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.7590443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Natus Vincere21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42025236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Natus Vincere13c1,991$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25029846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere24c1,963$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.692,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked G2 Esports72c1,955$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.0384360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Natus Vincere23c1,696$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39090937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere23c1,682$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8610024%24 W · 76 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…137dbacked G2 Esports80c1,618$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.084759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere23c1,535$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.1612840.6%52 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Natus Vincere20c1,517$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9525074.8%187 W · 63 L+42.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Natus Vincere25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere17c1,466$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.892,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere16c1,450$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.451,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Natus Vincere21c1,439$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.387841%32 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere20c1,406$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.831,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed G2 Esports74c1,379$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.1946464%297 W · 167 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere29c1,353$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.841,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Natus Vincere24c1,277$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.9466942.9%287 W · 382 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed G2 Esports79c1,259$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0350770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4e…9516backed Natus Vincere25c1,170$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.222437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere17c1,139$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2475342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed G2 Esports71c1,046$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3625265.5%165 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere25c1,039$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.442,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Natus Vincere22c1,037$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Natus Vincere25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25046257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Natus Vincere24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2409344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.712,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed G2 Esports78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204768.1%32 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed G2 Esports79c928.76$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.751,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Natus Vincere24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921,18751.9%616 W · 571 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere23c778.26$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17956432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e6…3365backed G2 Esports69c750$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.525368.4%173 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked G2 Esports70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2928166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed G2 Esports70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.291,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere27c699.55$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.873,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked G2 Esports79c689.35$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3959658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed G2 Esports75c675.01$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9914035.7%50 W · 90 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Natus Vincere4c672.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8294134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2051…f9f1backed Natus Vincere14c653.9$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7949253.5%263 W · 229 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Natus Vincere32c627.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere29c600$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.942,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Natus Vincere24c562.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13518742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Natus Vincere27c556.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Natus Vincere29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Natus Vincere26c476.92$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12412639.7%50 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Natus Vincere6c464.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038154.3%207 W · 174 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed94…c059backed Natus Vincere22c454.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016623.5%39 W · 127 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked G2 Esports72c416.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9250355.3%278 W · 225 L-21.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked G2 Esports74c406.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8883149.8%414 W · 417 L+2.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Natus Vincere13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5226834.3%92 W · 176 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Natus Vincere21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.479653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Natus Vincere28c389$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8946450.6%235 W · 229 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Natus Vincere21c363.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1229527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef70…eb8dbacked Natus Vincere30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere25c329.2$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.851,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Natus Vincere25c320$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked G2 Esports70c315.01$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0128253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere28c295.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.271,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Natus Vincere24c287.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022629.2%66 W · 160 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed G2 Esports79c280.69$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2986451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb74…3fabbacked G2 Esports73c273.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3619052.6%100 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c10…1a8bbacked G2 Esports76c264.09$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3847364.3%304 W · 169 L-20.8wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed Natus Vincere24c257.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9697452.5%511 W · 463 L+36.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7210…4bb5backed G2 Esports79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.512446.8%58 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9228240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd766…24e6backed Natus Vincere30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Natus Vincere26c248.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6529823.8%71 W · 227 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed G2 Esports74c242$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.925646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed G2 Esports70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2942852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Natus Vincere24c214.13$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3969941.9%293 W · 406 L-22.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Natus Vincere26c203.34$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8752344.9%235 W · 288 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8752…8607backed Natus Vincere29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x78d9…359cbacked Natus Vincere25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked G2 Esports77c199.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4644047.5%209 W · 231 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked G2 Esports71c197.18$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1850158.3%292 W · 209 L-17.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4965…0d70backed Natus Vincere15c196.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports79c189$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.363,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked G2 Esports70c184.29$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2955347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.