NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b853acc1902e5e8f82abb2ecabe98be26efcdf9898275c37fa35fd194d9322

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Bulls, 76ers
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $482,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $481,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,049 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x145c…43bcbacked Bulls	53c	410,632$218,058 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192,573.96	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.27per pick	51cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 76ers	47c	140,000$65,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65,800	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed 76ers	47c	129,406$60,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60,315.5	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	47c	40,125$19,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,032.25	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked 76ers	47c	35,000$16,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,350	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers	47c	30,812$14,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,466.64	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Bulls	54c	22,649$12,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,418.65	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers	47c	20,300$9,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,481	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Bulls	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 76ers	47c	13,729$6,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,400.44	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed 76ers	50c	12,162$6,021 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,021.43	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked 76ers	49c	8,865$4,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,343.41	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers	48c	4,794$2,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,292.63	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed 76ers	47c	3,316$1,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,557.81	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers	46c	3,011$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed 76ers	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked 76ers	53c	1,902$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked 76ers	53c	1,873$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked 76ers	50c	1,560$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 76ers	46c	1,522$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.12	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed 76ers	46c	1,011$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.06	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	50c	1,006$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.49	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed 76ers	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-7.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed 76ers	53c	943.4$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers	47c	632$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.16	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd479…2692backed Bulls	52c	594.43$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.64	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3269…d5b3backed Bulls	48c	570$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$296.4	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…0c4abacked 76ers	52c	570$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.4	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed 76ers	48c	544.17$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.2	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8354…b291backed 76ers	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked 76ers	48c	500$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.43	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked 76ers	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…3582backed Bulls	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked 76ers	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Bulls	49c	385.71$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.71	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed 76ers	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Bulls	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b15…a031backed 76ers	50c	196.84$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.42	126	57.9%73 W · 53 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Bulls	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	86	59.3%51 W · 35 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed 76ers	47c	151.65$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.28	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed 76ers	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked 76ers	49c	111$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…c04ebacked Bulls	54c	107.41$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.41	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Bulls	51c	107$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.43	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed 76ers	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7763…0494backed 76ers	50c	99.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bulls	49c	89.25$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.83	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed 76ers	51c	88.24$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	102	50%51 W · 51 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0647…da66backed 76ers	53c	87$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x357b…7b85backed 76ers	50c	66$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Bulls	51c	58.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.76	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed 76ers	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls	49c	52.79$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.93	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed 76ers	50c	46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed 76ers	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Bulls	52c	38.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Bulls	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeef…b62ebacked 76ers	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde0…c132backed Bulls	50c	23.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed 76ers	49c	23.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed 76ers	52c	20.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ca…fd12backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…5ce1backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event