MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x139a14df6a7ab67fce36f8ac2b1264214623d6d606fb5c75ef9b26eb38695207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Rays, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Twins | 54c | 20,077$10,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,235.39 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Rays | 46c | 15,640$7,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,194.4 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Twins | 55c | 6,800$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.43 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 45c | 6,070$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 46c | 4,565$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.74 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…40acbacked Twins | 55c | 4,000$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Rays | 46c | 3,450$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.99 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Twins | 53c | 1,554$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.2 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 46c | 1,446$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.6 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Rays | 47c | 1,417$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.96 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.99 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…0356backed Twins | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…39e3backed Rays | 46c | 978$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Twins | 53c | 941$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.04 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rays | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Rays | 2c | 695$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 45c | 559.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rays | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b57…d285backed Rays | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Rays | 22c | 447.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Rays | 47c | 415.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Rays | 46c | 366.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rays | 46c | 314.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Rays | 32c | 250.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Twins | 77c | 221.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Rays | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Rays | 7c | 166.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Rays | 48c | 162.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 32c | 150.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Twins | 52c | 141.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Rays | 19c | 133.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Rays | 21c | 133.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Rays | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…3f7ebacked Rays | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…52febacked Twins | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Rays | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Rays | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Rays | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…87abbacked Rays | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Rays | 47c | 85.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Rays | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 52c | 79.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa3…3199backed Rays | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…c245backed Twins | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Twins | 73c | 67.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Rays | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…9c15backed Rays | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…9ad1backed Twins | 54c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Rays | 48c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 47c | 61.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0135…a1ebbacked Rays | 47c | 56.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…acbfbacked Twins | 54c | 56.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Rays | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…4c0bbacked Twins | 54c | 52.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04d…48f5backed Rays | 47c | 51.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Rays | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Rays | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Rays | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rays | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Rays | 47c | 46.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 55c | 44.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Rays | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Twins | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Twins | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Twins | 55c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…9bbbbacked Twins | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.