Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141bed0ee30cf37190a17ce7b055a0ba6cac878dededeba2a56e4f5160d9d720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- sleepersof sleepers, M80
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked M80 | 53c | 10,000$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,314.98 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed sleepers | 48c | 4,742$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.22 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…b756backed sleepers | 46c | 3,562$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.83 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked sleepers | 46c | 2,565$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.14 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed sleepers | 45c | 1,815$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.65 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked M80 | 52c | 1,025$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.75 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed M80 | 45c | 896.46$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.4 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked sleepers | 57c | 726.42$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.34 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed M80 | 48c | 696.81$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.93 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…9795backed sleepers | 45c | 666.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked sleepers | 47c | 634.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked sleepers | 26c | 580.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked M80 | 45c | 543.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.78 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked M80 | 54c | 525.37$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.52 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed M80 | 58c | 464.63$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.81 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed sleepers | 45c | 435$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.25 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed M80 | 54c | 429.58$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 229 | 55%126 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked M80 | 67c | 372$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.02 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked M80 | 57c | 352.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed M80 | 54c | 345$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed M80 | 55c | 318.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c5f6backed M80 | 58c | 293.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed M80 | 55c | 274.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…a152backed sleepers | 49c | 246.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed M80 | 23c | 237$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed sleepers | 45c | 234.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed M80 | 54c | 219$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked M80 | 55c | 215.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed sleepers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked sleepers | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed sleepers | 53c | 193.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked M80 | 45c | 180.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed M80 | 51c | 159.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…5599backed sleepers | 44c | 116.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked sleepers | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked sleepers | 73c | 105.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 174 | 63.8%111 W · 63 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed sleepers | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed sleepers | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked sleepers | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked sleepers | 48c | 95.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked M80 | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed M80 | 68c | 73.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…896dbacked M80 | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…91aabacked sleepers | 41c | 69.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked sleepers | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked M80 | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed M80 | 70c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked M80 | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked sleepers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 199 | 43.7%87 W · 112 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked sleepers | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed sleepers | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed M80 | 53c | 49.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed M80 | 56c | 48.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked sleepers | 28c | 47.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed M80 | 55c | 46.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked sleepers | 33c | 45.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 170 | 39.4%67 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed sleepers | 43c | 39.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…d487backed M80 | 35c | 37.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed sleepers | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed sleepers | 47c | 36.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked M80 | 34c | 35.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…33bebacked M80 | 52c | 34.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked sleepers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…403cbacked sleepers | 36c | 33.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked sleepers | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed M80 | 58c | 30.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed M80 | 60c | 28.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x71f2…ee56backed sleepers | 47c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked M80 | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed sleepers | 73c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked sleepers | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…c894backed sleepers | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffsthis page
- Valorant: sleepers vs M80 - Map 2 Winnersleepers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.