CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14242362b9bf18a806124ff61df4cc1d9d96d8ba0af430bea6ac1060264364ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed HOTU | 10c | 6,631$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.54 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed HOTU | 31c | 3,486$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.12 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed HOTU | 23c | 2,874$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.1 | 789 | 39.5%312 W · 477 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 2,762$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.11 | 766 | 57.8%443 W · 323 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora Gaming | 75c | 1,876$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 1,263 | 46.9%592 W · 671 L | +18.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 1,677$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.67 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,472$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.16 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed HOTU | 24c | 1,040$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.33 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed HOTU | 22c | 944.17$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…494abacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 929.96$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked HOTU | 27c | 913.34$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a0…dc24backed HOTU | 29c | 857.55$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 814.03$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 895 | 46.8%419 W · 476 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 693.03$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.77 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…e454backed HOTU | 30c | 638.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 249 | 44.6%111 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed HOTU | 8c | 612.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed HOTU | 25c | 569.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…8857backed HOTU | 20c | 520$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…3f34backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 499.31$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f7…7714backed HOTU | 4c | 450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 190 | 48.9%93 W · 97 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked HOTU | 29c | 412.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…9206backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 409.45$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 212 | 46.2%98 W · 114 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 399.25$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed HOTU | 19c | 395.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked HOTU | 27c | 311.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed HOTU | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked HOTU | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked HOTU | 18c | 247.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 204 | 33.8%69 W · 135 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 242.58$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…2aabbacked HOTU | 20c | 169.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed HOTU | 33c | 149.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed HOTU | 28c | 144.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 144.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…ea10backed HOTU | 7c | 140.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b9…5d0dbacked HOTU | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 139.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 548 | 39.8%218 W · 330 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 427 | 57.8%247 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed HOTU | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…6431backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 125.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 231 | 65.8%152 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4eb…81f9backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 103.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…85fbbacked HOTU | 31c | 100.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 369 | 42%155 W · 214 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0b…09c6backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 98.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed HOTU | 30c | 92.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 512 | 52.3%268 W · 244 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed HOTU | 29c | 86.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 972 | 40.7%396 W · 576 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…abbbbacked HOTU | 17c | 83.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed HOTU | 47c | 75.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…f527backed HOTU | 33c | 73.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 492 | 26%128 W · 364 L | -45.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 69.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…6c48backed HOTU | 29c | 65.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 62.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 54.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed HOTU | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…dbafbacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed HOTU | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 629 | 38.3%241 W · 388 L | -17.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…ab33backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 195 | 54.4%106 W · 89 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 48.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 157 | 70.1%110 W · 47 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…3fd4backed HOTU | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked HOTU | 29c | 43.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 483 | 19%92 W · 391 L | -65.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 32.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffd…8cadbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 31.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 372 | 40.3%150 W · 222 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…254abacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 26.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 24.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 590 | 55.6%328 W · 262 L | +23.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 23.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group BAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.