AI · resolved market
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1492eca2de0de33aa45cf50e1d2c3c63713a1991fa728b51688f6cadcda677ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 40c | 950.88$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 72c | 916.49$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 850.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 57c | 742.97$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.79 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 12c | 333.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 70c | 276.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 26c | 201.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 67c | 201.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…2b32backed No | 35c | 143.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 72c | 136.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 130.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 10c | 104.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 47c | 84.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 47c | 84.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 47c | 75.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 29c | 69.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 33c | 68.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2092…a752backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 29c | 59.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 55.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 71c | 40.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe9…d22ebacked No | 45c | 33.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 44c | 22.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 71c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 75c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?this page
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $39B?Yes won
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $41B?No won
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $42B?No won
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $43B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.