MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1493f8c716f3456d7c304d6dd47cc0ac71bcc63b46a09f7250b822f9e18634ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 3,488$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 2,540$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.18 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 2,300$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.98 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 1,781$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,617$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.23 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,460$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.59 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 1,134$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.99 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,103$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.57 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 1,079$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,030$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.54 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 802.48$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.02 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 718.6$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.46 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 499.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 450$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 427.87$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 8c | 410.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 389.83$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 339.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 328.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 303.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 266.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 261$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 199.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 176.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 121.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 110.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 102.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 90.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 88.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 79.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 61.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 49.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 48.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 43.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 40.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 38.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 37.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 33.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 29.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 25.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…31e8backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.