TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94da…25b5backed Yes4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes12c653.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.824,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes6c447.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c301.5$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c287.73$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9095…43edbacked Yes73c272.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No64c272.37$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1513751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes45c253.64$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.261,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c217$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1daf…f773backed Yes42c190.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.61915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c171$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.194,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c168.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.062,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes53c131.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015466.9%103 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c116.22$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes51c116$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.221,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No71c105.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5133373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No61c104.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8121268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No65c100.51$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.243,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c97.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.82,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes43c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.751,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes34c89.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No57c89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3751553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes29c83.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes50c81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c70.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No60c67.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1682562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No60c67.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.251,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c66.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c65.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes41c64.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.289443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No59c60.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.77650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No74c59.53$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.422,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes41c56.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3225447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No50c56.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.581,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c55.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.492,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes50c54.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.244330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes42c53.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0913943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf012…4db5backed Yes57c52.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes27c47.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes40c46.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.595455.6%30 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No36c46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.251,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes45c45.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3918242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes39c44.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.221,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c42.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.344,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c41.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c40.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bd…b428backed Yes57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No64c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.361,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked Yes41c36.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9924951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No62c30.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.193,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dc…263cbacked Yes38c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No58c29.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No50c27.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9514250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No73c27.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No63c26.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5157264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No58c25.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8620161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No59c25.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7525042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No59c24.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes51c24.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.429150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No61c23.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No59c23.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6212057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No54c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6828456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No61c22.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No57c22.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No58c22.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3351631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No49c21.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No57c21.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.183941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbca…91ddbacked Yes52c21.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84070%28 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.622450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No53c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9339158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No59c18.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6130168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3839157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No58c17.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No66c17.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8933654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No63c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.312758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.