Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda075d54700084e0455458b2cf0d5d277695257382f57a5fb97f80884463ced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 0c | 14,786$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…625fbacked No | 2c | 3,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,085$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.42 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 13c | 687.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 620.02$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 494.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 38c | 412.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 36c | 382.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 353.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 60c | 255.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 248.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 221.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 199.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 177.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…4db5backed No | 57c | 174.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 168$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 159.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 156.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed No | 65c | 155.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 155.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 57c | 119.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 115.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 93.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 89.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 64c | 81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 37c | 80.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 13c | 80.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 78.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 73.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 59c | 72.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 37c | 64.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 59.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 46c | 58.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 50c | 56.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 35c | 55.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 40c | 53.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dc…263cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 48.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 45.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 42c | 45.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 44.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 63c | 43.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 35.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 61c | 34.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 53c | 33.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 33.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…91d2backed Yes | 40c | 32.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 44c | 32.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…36e9backed No | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 47c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 24.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 24.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…e339backed Yes | 68c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 66c | 22.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 63c | 21.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed No | 63c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8584backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 65c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.