Us Politics · resolved market
Will TikTok be banned before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d1d4d58aacb0be8d554b95497e2bba50874925681ee3e144e5e41447c49111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbb4…7ec5backed Yes | 29c | 55,667$16,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,143.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…fb6fbacked No | 71c | 55,667$39,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,143.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 12c | 8,623$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.32 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 5c | 6,890$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 5c | 6,036$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 2c | 5,869$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…ff45backed Yes | 3c | 5,779$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,458$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb8…19f7backed Yes | 3c | 3,697$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 0c | 3,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,318$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 4c | 2,178$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…3ae4backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 3c | 1,806$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,750$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 1c | 1,487$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…52fabacked Yes | 28c | 797.06$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 783.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 579.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 4c | 557.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…3f06backed No | 76c | 523.59$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 474.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 447$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 427.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 421.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 9c | 366.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…6c2fbacked Yes | 7c | 365.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d19…fd49backed No | 78c | 364.46$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6959…5ab9backed Yes | 5c | 332.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 306.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 67c | 238.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 70c | 213.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 202.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…0db2backed Yes | 27c | 174.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…25c4backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…aeecbacked No | 69c | 105.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…fd39backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 28c | 97.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed No | 71c | 96.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…7a01backed No | 71c | 90.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 72c | 74.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 29c | 74.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…2ec7backed No | 74c | 72.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…c5bebacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…6a18backed No | 72c | 68.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…b622backed No | 74c | 65.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…0204backed No | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7c…0440backed No | 60c | 41.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 75c | 41.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…4fc5backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…9e9abacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…18d1backed No | 75c | 40.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 27c | 39.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…0c73backed No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…1ce4backed No | 74c | 36.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…a1c3backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…0ab7backed No | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…1249backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…227abacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cf…4de3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5d…f9f1backed No | 74c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…8105backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…f262backed No | 76c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.