Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155ba580e03cb8cf4df31b18cdd9d0d04fd659f65d1faf8c0172ce010739fe18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 1c | 13,195$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,027$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 851.49$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 370.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 369.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 11c | 262.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 238.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 230.4$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 220.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 213.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 191.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 151.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 24c | 151.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 53c | 139.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 133.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 115.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 10c | 103.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 20c | 96.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 29c | 93.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 92.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 90.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 13c | 88.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 87.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 80.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 25c | 71.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 33c | 71.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 59.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 53c | 56.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 55.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 52.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 66c | 50.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 50.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…8cbdbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 47c | 34.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 32.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 39c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 27.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 53c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed No | 63c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 80c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.