Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2baa14e1f599ce8c36715c79c0091b0270be42b6010b630784de5550146cd67f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 472.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 384.81$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 356.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 324.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 23c | 299.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 258.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 237.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 228.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 220$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 186.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 180.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 178.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 161.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 51c | 126.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 126.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 124$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 45c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 118.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 104.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 103.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 101.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 95.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 44c | 85.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 85.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 82.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 81.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 35c | 80.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 79.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 76.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 69.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 68.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 62.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 42c | 61.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 42c | 61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 57c | 59.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 57.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 55.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 43.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 32c | 41.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…c952backed Yes | 61c | 36.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 34.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked No | 36c | 33.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 57c | 31.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 39c | 31.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 66c | 30.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 28.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 27.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab8…a59fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…8aa4backed Yes | 80c | 23.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 50c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 22.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 57c | 22.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 61c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 21.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 21.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 19.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 18.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 15.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.