Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285b1990ff9f93801ce305421a8086fc7aff77692bdb492c06fbaba8b9e8e0b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 784.78$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 80c | 583.65$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 575.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 511.82$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 505.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 440.36$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 311.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 292$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 257.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 240.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 223.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 212.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 210.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 198.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 194.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 166.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 164.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 155.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 24c | 127.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 126.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 125.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 118.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 116.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 114.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 114.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 113.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 107.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 96.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 93.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 82.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 79.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 78.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 75c | 75.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 74.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 56c | 70.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 70.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 15c | 70.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 68.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 67.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 67.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 64c | 62.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 59c | 61.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 60.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 55.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 48.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 38c | 47.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 28c | 45.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 32c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 40.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 40.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 58c | 40.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 79c | 34.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 34.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 72c | 31.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 31.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 52c | 28.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 41c | 25.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 48c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 71c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 16.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.