NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15855798879cfa7f96b37999e22bc98cb2b27d324e5b648fe4996ecc7b5e3c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Pelicans, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Bucks | 56c | 35,745$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,744.95 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 44c | 28,880$12,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,736.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…0d82backed Pelicans | 44c | 17,098$7,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,523.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a8…c300backed Bucks | 56c | 10,593$5,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,660.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…b107backed Bucks | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…d848backed Bucks | 56c | 2,926$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3dffbacked Bucks | 55c | 2,826$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.63 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…aa9fbacked Pelicans | 44c | 2,400$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 2,264$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Bucks | 56c | 1,980$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.2 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Pelicans | 44c | 1,886$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.9 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 44c | 1,756$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.64 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Pelicans | 44c | 1,430$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.2 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 55c | 940.6$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.42 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…3f0fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 518.46$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans | 44c | 447.76$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 43c | 440.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Bucks | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pelicans | 36c | 428.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Pelicans | 44c | 409.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Bucks | 55c | 361.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Bucks | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 288.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 44c | 287.84$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Bucks | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bucks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Bucks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bucks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Bucks | 64c | 156.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pelicans | 44c | 156.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 44c | 150.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Pelicans | 46c | 134.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Pelicans | 20c | 129.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans | 42c | 112.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pelicans | 44c | 110.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Bucks | 56c | 108.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…2108backed Bucks | 56c | 102.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Pelicans | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Pelicans | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Bucks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Bucks | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Bucks | 56c | 70.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 47c | 69.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pelicans | 41c | 67.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Pelicans | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Bucks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Bucks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Bucks | 56c | 54.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Bucks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…0578backed Bucks | 56c | 51.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Pelicans | 39c | 47.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…718fbacked Pelicans | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Pelicans | 45c | 39.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 40c | 38.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pelicans | 41c | 36.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Bucks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6b01backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 55c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Bucks | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Bucks | 56c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…35b7backed Bucks | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks | 65c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…e682backed Bucks | 56c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)this page
- Bucks vs. PelicansBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cam Thomas: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Bucks won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.