Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1605fea2f24ad591ddfbeaae121cf1f5666026ffaf0cfe6e0e0cea45dccc420b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 982.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 717$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…6f8ebacked Yes | 32c | 631.25$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 548.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 354$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 319.48$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 14c | 287.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 239.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 220.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 203.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 8c | 201.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 190.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 183.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 154.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 142.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 112.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 110.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 109$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 98.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 80c | 97.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 93.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 13c | 89.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 85.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 71.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 69.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 67.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 60c | 64.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 59.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 54.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 26c | 50.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 37.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 33.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 30.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 67c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 70c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 65c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 70c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.