Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f44003d41ae731424b58ced62cf69cb964d8cb8f67f951f771d99c1e0056ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe38…6f8ebacked Yes | 32c | 628.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 28c | 454.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 354$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 299.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 289$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 246.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 213.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 68c | 188.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 173.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 167.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 149$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 119.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 112.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 106.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 83.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 83.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 68c | 75.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…7ad0backed Yes | 58c | 56.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 56.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 50.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 64c | 48.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 47.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 45.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 37.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 33.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.