Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5631418f4e32c1e8d8eed30a3bd06f5c16069098cd5ee08e359dd43cb1128b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 527.59$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 472.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 452.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 369.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 316.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 247.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 14c | 238.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 222.38$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 194.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 149.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 146.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 132.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 125.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 19c | 118.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 115.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 98.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 96.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 84.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 80.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 79.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 80c | 78.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 77.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 23c | 74.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 21c | 74.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 72.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 60.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 20c | 53.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…3026backed Yes | 33c | 47.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 37.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 28.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…05a0backed No | 77c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 77c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 77c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 73c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.