UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x174ae3448547ce0551e908ec74cf5c2ec190b6a15cb13deacb8d5074fa59df8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexia Thainaraof Bruna Brasil, Alexia Thainara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Bruna Brasil | 13c | 40,762$5,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,405.17 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Bruna Brasil | 0c | 28,983$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 10,166$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.49 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Bruna Brasil | 9c | 7,186$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.73 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bruna Brasil | 13c | 4,406$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.74 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 2,489$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.14 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Bruna Brasil | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bruna Brasil | 12c | 1,634$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Bruna Brasil | 14c | 1,599$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Bruna Brasil | 12c | 1,186$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 1,095$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Bruna Brasil | 5c | 1,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Bruna Brasil | 17c | 972.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Bruna Brasil | 8c | 925$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Bruna Brasil | 6c | 810$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Bruna Brasil | 14c | 724$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 634$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Bruna Brasil | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Bruna Brasil | 7c | 511.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Bruna Brasil | 7c | 501.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Bruna Brasil | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bruna Brasil | 8c | 343.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…44c3backed Bruna Brasil | 15c | 334.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…6e0fbacked Bruna Brasil | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Bruna Brasil | 9c | 320$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bruna Brasil | 8c | 311.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Bruna Brasil | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bruna Brasil | 12c | 298.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Bruna Brasil | 12c | 298.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Bruna Brasil | 12c | 291.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bruna Brasil | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…9e2fbacked Bruna Brasil | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…9ca9backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 207.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Bruna Brasil | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 176.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…1214backed Bruna Brasil | 10c | 164.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bruna Brasil | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Bruna Brasil | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Bruna Brasil | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Bruna Brasil | 8c | 142.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Bruna Brasil | 13c | 142.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Bruna Brasil | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 121.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Bruna Brasil | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…77cfbacked Bruna Brasil | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…6fb9backed Bruna Brasil | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…cb10backed Bruna Brasil | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.