Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17cd8cfc0b397b74f26f0300e4a4de069d3b363a10744ccb0c1b51737c22ff3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 1,223$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 1,063$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.29 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 57c | 695.3$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 603.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 596$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 473.34$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 471.38$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 42c | 351.7$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 316.81$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 296$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 286.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 79c | 273.16$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 251.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 230.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 222.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 51c | 211.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 205$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 35c | 205$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 201.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 200.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 52c | 182.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 63c | 180.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 170.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 43c | 137.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 134.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 125.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 118.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 118.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 41c | 106.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 106.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 105.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 45c | 104.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 13c | 102.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 76c | 101.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 97.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 86.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 66c | 81.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 75.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 73.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 27c | 72.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 66.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes | 49c | 65.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 64.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 61.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 45c | 57.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 38c | 53.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 49.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 44c | 48.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 76c | 46.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed No | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 37.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 37.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 36.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 58c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 42c | 31.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 70c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 57c | 27.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…1149backed Yes | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…8940backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.