Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65180a83a6d2611d3c3bfb4508cb0815cf472ba0f79c3787ff4d02f065cffadb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,261$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 679.81$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 455.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 450.81$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 42c | 429.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 249.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 29c | 216.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 208.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 199.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 198.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 26c | 191.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 178.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 170$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 153.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 145.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 65c | 143.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 45c | 134.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 131.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 127.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 127.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 44c | 119.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 26c | 118.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 116.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 113.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 112.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 108.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 100.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 97.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 89.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 85.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 66c | 79.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 25c | 74.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 31c | 68.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 67.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 62c | 63.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 63.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 38c | 59.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 57.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 57.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 56.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 37c | 54.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 42c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 71c | 42.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 25c | 41.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 40.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 51c | 40.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 40.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 36.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 58c | 34.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 32.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 27.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 69c | 26.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 73c | 18.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 58c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 75c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.