Asian League · resolved market
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d81a18dce1799469c8e7dba3c4d276f96c1810359cb3fb628fa6da03a7a8ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 10c | 1,249$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 568.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…deeebacked Over | 13c | 277.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Under | 66c | 150.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 37c | 146.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 35c | 142.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 64c | 127.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 108.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…0b18backed Over | 13c | 86.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 35c | 56.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked Under | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 23c | 47.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 35c | 45.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Over | 36c | 44.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Over | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…d2bbbacked Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 71c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.