TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jack Draperof Roberto Bautista Agut, Jack Draper
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,006 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Roberto Bautista Agut13c15,047$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.632,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Jack Draper75c13,500$10,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,37527460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Roberto Bautista Agut25c10,751$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,723.56,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Roberto Bautista Agut21c9,047$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.022,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Roberto Bautista Agut20c5,332$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.117,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Roberto Bautista Agut14c4,758$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.1223945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jack Draper76c4,667$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.812,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Jack Draper75c4,060$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.14860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Roberto Bautista Agut1c3,251$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.261,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Jack Draper77c3,247$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.8617452.9%92 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Roberto Bautista Agut22c2,915$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.331,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Roberto Bautista Agut42c2,705$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.411827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Jack Draper77c2,505$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.213363.9%85 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Jack Draper79c2,498$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.593055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de0…f7f1backed Jack Draper60c2,183$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.322560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Roberto Bautista Agut17c2,000$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.561,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Jack Draper77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Jack Draper75c1,723$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.2720653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Roberto Bautista Agut28c1,567$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.132,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Roberto Bautista Agut44c1,362$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Jack Draper57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.078855.7%49 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Jack Draper59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4106331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jack Draper75c990.93$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.788,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Roberto Bautista Agut16c975.45$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15639431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Roberto Bautista Agut47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Roberto Bautista Agut46c849.5$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39214748.3%71 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Roberto Bautista Agut23c754.85$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.971,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Jack Draper78c697.44$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.441,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jack Draper78c696.76$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.723,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Roberto Bautista Agut25c668$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16710341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430b…6e64backed Roberto Bautista Agut44c662.18$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3620447.5%97 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Roberto Bautista Agut15c647.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Roberto Bautista Agut41c630.74$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.841,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc847…0a42backed Roberto Bautista Agut12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72280%0 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0058…1ce8backed Jack Draper77c545.45$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f10…c927backed Jack Draper69c510$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.710543.8%46 W · 59 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d0…39f3backed Roberto Bautista Agut40c490.5$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.37057.1%40 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Jack Draper75c481.03$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.632965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed Jack Draper56c441.02$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0212150.4%61 W · 60 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jack Draper78c435.48$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7165647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Roberto Bautista Agut18c417.04$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.921,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Jack Draper78c404.44$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9844038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Roberto Bautista Agut42c380$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.860943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Roberto Bautista Agut41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Roberto Bautista Agut15c341.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2246030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…6af2backed Roberto Bautista Agut42c338.17$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14112835.2%45 W · 83 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Jack Draper75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.338262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba9f…c88bbacked Roberto Bautista Agut42c323.76$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Jack Draper80c304.65$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7324962.2%155 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Roberto Bautista Agut13c280$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.486835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Jack Draper77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.870465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a8…6c88backed Jack Draper76c251.59$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.731275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Jack Draper59c220.76$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7651933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa57c…22b8backed Roberto Bautista Agut23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Jack Draper55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9022949.8%114 W · 115 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Jack Draper55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8221758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed Jack Draper56c176$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.614257%81 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Roberto Bautista Agut16c171.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Jack Draper69c159.36$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.882,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Jack Draper75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3318659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Roberto Bautista Agut15c129.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Roberto Bautista Agut28c128.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.276,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Roberto Bautista Agut32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.899044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Roberto Bautista Agut32c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7173745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed02…85f7backed Roberto Bautista Agut44c114.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Roberto Bautista Agut19c100.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.363,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Jack Draper71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.451,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Roberto Bautista Agut15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d5…4af2backed Roberto Bautista Agut15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Jack Draper65c96.57$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1464540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b6…70ffbacked Jack Draper79c91.33$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1820352.2%106 W · 97 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4739…a1c1backed Roberto Bautista Agut28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522642%95 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Roberto Bautista Agut25c86.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9743058.6%252 W · 178 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jack Draper70c81.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.964,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…44dfbacked Roberto Bautista Agut14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27636.8%28 W · 48 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Jack Draper78c78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1633364.9%216 W · 117 L-19.4wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Roberto Bautista Agut22c78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1681349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a44…61c5backed Jack Draper71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.426149.2%30 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Roberto Bautista Agut16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210622.6%24 W · 82 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Jack Draper58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9760661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Jack Draper78c63.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.114,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d4…a896backed Jack Draper79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.299652.1%50 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Roberto Bautista Agut16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Jack Draper76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.447453.2%252 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Jack Draper55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5517859%105 W · 73 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…61bdbacked Jack Draper78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111347.8%54 W · 59 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Jack Draper60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186435.9%23 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89bc…a463backed Jack Draper55c43.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.646650%33 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea9…5116backed Jack Draper58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jack Draper67c36.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.222,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Jack Draper65c35.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5238147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Jack Draper55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8558438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Jack Draper73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2565264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5e…e0f7backed Jack Draper59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.327552%143 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Roberto Bautista Agut44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e5…e2a2backed Jack Draper66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.919762.9%124 W · 73 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9620…5052backed Jack Draper55c18.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.199562.1%59 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed Jack Draper77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.761080%8 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.