Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180319e3b266f40f239fb9684f94de99da98030bb5daab6162cbc272b6c1536c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 4c | 999.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 30c | 413.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 26c | 402.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 313.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 309.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 276.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 229$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 178.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 176.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 32c | 173.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 171.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 160.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 147.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 21c | 120.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 105.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 23c | 103.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 90.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 87.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 86.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 20c | 86.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 24c | 83.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 23c | 74.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed Yes | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 28c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 66.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 62.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 62.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 26c | 61.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 55.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 44.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 75c | 40.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 39.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 37.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 31.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 25.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 79c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d2d6backed No | 78c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.