Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163cdd98678bb3cd2577645b848cdd78dccbdd4889a2f5fd00a691d94acad4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 1,186$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 6c | 891.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 6c | 597.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 16c | 563.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 2c | 530$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 459.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 79c | 407.32$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 374.87$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 33c | 349.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 345.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 33c | 308.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 6c | 269.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 213.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 210.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 202.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 197.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 196.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 183.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 171.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 168.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 125.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 125.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 13c | 116.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 39c | 115.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 110.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 103.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 44c | 102.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 87.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 60c | 82.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…2d3ebacked Yes | 80c | 82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 45c | 80.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 79.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 40c | 73.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 70.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 63.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 63.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 62.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed No | 17c | 61.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 66c | 61.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 54c | 57.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 56.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 49.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 78c | 48.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 47.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 50c | 47.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 36c | 41.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 34c | 40.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 70c | 34.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 33.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 32.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 37c | 27.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…c538backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 63c | 24.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 78c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 21.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…962cbacked Yes | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 68c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 14.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.