TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Elena Rybakina

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elena Rybakinaof Hailey Baptiste, Elena Rybakina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$358,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,847 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Hailey Baptiste15c24,510$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.412,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Elena Rybakina78c12,901$10,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.876,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Hailey Baptiste10c9,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9923945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Hailey Baptiste10c8,452$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.181,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Hailey Baptiste25c8,029$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00055646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Hailey Baptiste34c7,349$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.758429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Elena Rybakina65c3,800$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.462548%12 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hailey Baptiste10c3,252$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.81,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Hailey Baptiste21c3,048$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.372,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Elena Rybakina77c1,915$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.022,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hailey Baptiste31c1,884$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.921,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Hailey Baptiste10c1,674$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1117933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Elena Rybakina62c1,606$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.143461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Elena Rybakina67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49574743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Hailey Baptiste10c1,345$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0246932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Hailey Baptiste20c1,308$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0771725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Hailey Baptiste13c1,273$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.643042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Elena Rybakina77c1,139$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.7481349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Hailey Baptiste37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hailey Baptiste29c1,064$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.797,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Elena Rybakina69c1,010$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.141,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e9…e33ebacked Hailey Baptiste10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+166%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Elena Rybakina63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37028451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Hailey Baptiste6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608031.3%25 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Hailey Baptiste10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Hailey Baptiste35c853.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Hailey Baptiste12c851.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7693…ba75backed Hailey Baptiste10c850$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hailey Baptiste12c793.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.231,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed Elena Rybakina65c770.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.2812150.4%61 W · 60 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hailey Baptiste10c715$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hailey Baptiste9c668.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.248,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Elena Rybakina73c635.58$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.581,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc847…0a42backed Hailey Baptiste8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48280%0 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x164e…c2a2backed Hailey Baptiste38c583.42$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.43542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Hailey Baptiste9c551.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8166452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Hailey Baptiste9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4526541.9%111 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Hailey Baptiste22c471.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.714,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Hailey Baptiste4c367.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.691,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Elena Rybakina63c350.14$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5551933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Elena Rybakina72c349.04$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.048262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Hailey Baptiste13c346.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512032.5%39 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Elena Rybakina65c320$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11270465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Hailey Baptiste42c315$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.991,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Elena Rybakina74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7870652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Hailey Baptiste10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3086835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Elena Rybakina64c300$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.626833.6%90 W · 178 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…7d90backed Elena Rybakina67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.511241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hailey Baptiste29c291.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.371,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Elena Rybakina75c269.25$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.223,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hailey Baptiste10c262.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.014,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Hailey Baptiste24c234$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2173745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Hailey Baptiste11c231.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.511931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Elena Rybakina76c229.09$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Hailey Baptiste9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba9f…c88bbacked Hailey Baptiste36c218.08$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.061457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Hailey Baptiste24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9edc…b088backed Hailey Baptiste10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028424.3%69 W · 215 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Hailey Baptiste23c194.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.236,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Hailey Baptiste33c182.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6057349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50aa…0003backed Elena Rybakina65c172.31$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.318353%44 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Hailey Baptiste9c166.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Hailey Baptiste23c162$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.351,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Elena Rybakina68c147.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Hailey Baptiste23c143$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Elena Rybakina78c135.68$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3417552.6%92 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Elena Rybakina74c135.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.581,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Hailey Baptiste9c130.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7324244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Hailey Baptiste30c125.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3870729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hailey Baptiste31c116.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1638147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Hailey Baptiste22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Elena Rybakina65c103.08$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0882560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Hailey Baptiste11c100.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Hailey Baptiste44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x178c…1798backed Hailey Baptiste10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Elena Rybakina53c94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.184,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Hailey Baptiste32c88.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.391,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Hailey Baptiste26c86.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.863,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x796c…49dbbacked Elena Rybakina76c85.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.618448.8%41 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hailey Baptiste26c73.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.122,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked Elena Rybakina77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.944557.8%26 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Elena Rybakina68c58.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8260661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x688a…9450backed Elena Rybakina63c52.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.311650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x098d…38dabacked Hailey Baptiste31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…4f13backed Elena Rybakina79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.974761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Hailey Baptiste36c37.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.259660.4%58 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5e…e0f7backed Elena Rybakina60c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.827552%143 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…261fbacked Elena Rybakina74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7824357.6%140 W · 103 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a1…7758backed Elena Rybakina76c23.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.714671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc274…86debacked Elena Rybakina53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.449342.8%211 W · 282 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e5…e2a2backed Elena Rybakina64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.319762.9%124 W · 73 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Elena Rybakina79c18.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9930853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Elena Rybakina67c18.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.272,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed Elena Rybakina70c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.881080%8 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Elena Rybakina78c15.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.38785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+36.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9620…5052backed Elena Rybakina67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.959562.1%59 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Elena Rybakina76c13.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2811779.5%93 W · 24 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+18.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.