Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18dec93b4bc617de74222bb5469cc3a4e15d921184f3c98bfb65ee6b5cb00317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 645.86$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.28 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 621.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 78c | 319.55$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 307.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 204.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 199.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 189.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 66c | 187.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 177.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 172.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 148.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 132.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 63c | 132$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 125.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 118.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 113.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 106.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 94.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 83.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 78.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 76.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 75.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 75.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 42c | 73.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 23c | 68.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 66.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 64.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 63.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 63.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 33c | 61.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 62c | 48.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 47.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 46.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 37c | 44.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 74c | 35.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 76c | 34.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked No | 63c | 33.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 31c | 32.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 31.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 63c | 29.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 55c | 24.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 23.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 72c | 18.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 18.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 74c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.