TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors48c11,879$5,702 inLost-$5,701.712,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Timberwolves52c10,648$5,537 inWon+$5,111.0840350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Warriors55c6,000$3,300 inLost-$3,299.9946145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Timberwolves52c1,923$1,000 inWon+$923.0841649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves44c1,640$728 inWon+$912.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves44c1,101$487 inWon+$613.351,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Timberwolves45c1,000$450 inWon+$5509430.9%29 W · 65 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Warriors57c999.99$570 inLost-$569.9932051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Timberwolves45c760$342 inWon+$41817653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors48c697$335 inLost-$334.563,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves45c666$300 inWon+$366.32,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Timberwolves45c542.22$244 inWon+$298.2217454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Timberwolves45c500$225 inWon+$27511256.3%63 W · 49 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves45c485$218 inWon+$266.756,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves45c401.35$179 inWon+$222.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Warriors49c296.59$145 inLost-$145.3335747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Timberwolves45c222.22$100 inWon+$122.2263447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Timberwolves47c200$93 inWon+$10780744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves47c108.99$51 inWon+$58.1868940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b4f…0019backed Timberwolves47c106.38$50 inWon+$56.381457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+131.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Warriors51c103.01$53 inLost-$52.541,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors55c96.67$53 inLost-$52.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4c…9dc3backed Timberwolves52c82$42 inWon+$39.666741.8%28 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves49c76.01$37 inWon+$38.773,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Warriors57c59.39$34 inLost-$33.8592750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Warriors49c51.02$25 inLost-$2549852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Warriors58c49.69$29 inLost-$28.8253250.4%268 W · 264 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Timberwolves45c35.12$16 inWon+$19.3211849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7f…8c81backed Warriors49c30.61$15 inLost-$1510551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Warriors52c30$16 inLost-$15.635851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors53c26.69$14 inLost-$14.153,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Warriors55c25.23$14 inLost-$13.8843244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Timberwolves44c23.2$10 inWon+$133145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Warriors64c21$13 inLost-$13.4432455.9%181 W · 143 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.