NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb43558726447718fdca41c8d2d93b6fe85f5fd9058e262bf590de588551da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Warriors, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd97…ad0cbacked Warriors | 0c | 12,065$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Warriors | 32c | 4,670$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.38 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 65c | 4,247$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Warriors | 49c | 3,904$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 68c | 955.04$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.89 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Timberwolves | 72c | 799.06$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Timberwolves | 53c | 511.32$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.7 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f8a0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 470.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Warriors | 45c | 441.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Timberwolves | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 36c | 204.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Warriors | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…005ebacked Warriors | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Warriors | 36c | 163.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Warriors | 28c | 150.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Warriors | 35c | 143.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Warriors | 25c | 76.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 68c | 65.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Warriors | 31c | 54.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 29c | 40.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…f2cabacked Timberwolves | 67c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…33a2backed Timberwolves | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Timberwolves | 72c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Timberwolves | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.