NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fef24aba8d5fb1bab785cffa062d4b86b2680478d72fbf8e0f37a998c53360a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $386,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 53c | 160,657$84,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,947.9 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,000 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Under | 50c | 62,400$31,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,200 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 29,949$14,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,637.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 10,500$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 48c | 10,100$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 8,962$4,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,749.7 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Over | 51c | 7,881$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.48 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 6,257$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 50c | 5,682$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,841.2 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 50c | 4,475$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 4,412$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.88 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb828…2cabbacked Over | 50c | 4,278$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 3,335$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 3,200$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 3,027$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.31 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 2,117$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.53 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 47c | 1,940$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.2 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 6c | 996.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 53c | 948.15$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 8c | 799.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Over | 50c | 682.39$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.2 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 617.41$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 57c | 609.47$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.09 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 14c | 599.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 49c | 484.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.92 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 48c | 386.16$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 49c | 214.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…1cd0backed Over | 50c | 188$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 182.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 51c | 152.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 146.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6663…e301backed Over | 50c | 139.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 118.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 99.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 49c | 50.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…803ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 49c | 44.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 44.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 49c | 32.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.