NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe099d1de7db87984ac893409eb01719a095e29fe297bb44c262817acc3fe495c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 101,283$48,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,615.23 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 52c | 100,000$52,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,000 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 6,004$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.04 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,573$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 53c | 1,277$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.36 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 50c | 1,005$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.49 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 873.93$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 849.02$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 628.18$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Over | 46c | 594.96$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 55c | 496$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…3476backed Over | 48c | 417.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…3dd2backed Under | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 313$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 54c | 294.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 188$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 180.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 54c | 156$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 153$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 52c | 146.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 25c | 140.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6663…e301backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 53c | 95.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 91.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 50c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 53c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Under | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.