IPO · resolved market
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1974d7ead3bccb40bae2ea31718757a7f349e726d7cead97f11181d0387f401d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 48c | 943.87$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.96 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 51c | 875.05$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.93 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 55c | 457.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 402.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 348$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 56c | 325.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 43c | 200.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 48c | 141$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…8353backed Yes | 50c | 133.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 132$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 56c | 95.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 44c | 84.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 49c | 80.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…a059backed Yes | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 54c | 44.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 57c | 40.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 44c | 39.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed No | 56c | 29.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…d1d5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…86c2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…62ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…e34abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a73…9541backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed No | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be at least $1.4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $1.1B and $1.4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be less than $0.8B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.