Earnings · resolved market
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a2700084a22491fec81ba8c488b8820f20e1174703389bd2689231d9e722c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Yes | 1c | 54,209$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 31c | 817.79$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.25 | 353 | 36.5%129 W · 224 L | +21.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 490.63$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 73c | 315.88$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 34c | 245.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.46 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 79c | 235.53$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 684 | 43%294 W · 390 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd1…8919backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 44c | 169.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 121$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 49c | 102.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 75.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 25c | 75.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 142 | 32.4%46 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked No | 48c | 67.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…927dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 58c | 59.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 39c | 51.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 37c | 45.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed Yes | 57c | 45.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 45.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 40c | 39.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…b9ffbacked Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 49c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 51c | 27.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…a040backed Yes | 61c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.