Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a340b2c079d396577f6df8c0603d0cc3358bcc47343d516ee3cc9de0a235b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 2,224$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 11c | 1,389$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 61c | 1,023$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.39 | 61 | 93.4%57 W · 4 L | +22.3wins | +0.37per pick | 57cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 668.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.46 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 561.11$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.84 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 48c | 523.53$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 361.04$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 268.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 264.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 51c | 217.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 198$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 178.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 61c | 173.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 143.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 18c | 139$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 136.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 50c | 116.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 115.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 108.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…33ebbacked Yes | 33c | 99.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 78c | 96.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 96.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 81.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…9da7backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 74.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 58.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 58.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 56.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 55.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 50.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 44.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 40.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 38.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 26.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 23.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 58c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 68c | 23.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 49c | 21.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -10.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 20.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 16.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.