NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6fc317f4a58746a8a19d7965d2ac646b950c4584a87b0614025d1a39763952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Golden Knights | 47c | 31,275$14,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,575.54 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Flames | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,900 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Flames | 55c | 5,680$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Flames | 53c | 5,500$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.97 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Golden Knights | 47c | 3,088$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.61 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Golden Knights | 55c | 2,437$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.76 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Golden Knights | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 45c | 1,555$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.25 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Flames | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…85abbacked Flames | 54c | 892.48$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.35 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…b0eabacked Golden Knights | 22c | 700$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Golden Knights | 47c | 510.16$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.39 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…5e5abacked Golden Knights | 19c | 504.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flames | 78c | 459.7$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.17 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 45c | 325.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Golden Knights | 52c | 312.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights | 45c | 287.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Golden Knights | 23c | 281.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden Knights | 30c | 259.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Flames | 54c | 254.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…6e26backed Golden Knights | 48c | 252.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Golden Knights | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…e6d4backed Golden Knights | 46c | 174.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Golden Knights | 47c | 173.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…b815backed Flames | 13c | 167.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flames | 73c | 150.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 37c | 150.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 38c | 132.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Golden Knights | 26c | 104.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Golden Knights | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Flames | 72c | 101.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Golden Knights | 47c | 74.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Golden Knights | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Flames | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Golden Knights | 36c | 68.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Flames | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Golden Knights | 34c | 56.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2960…5fc3backed Flames | 55c | 54.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Flames | 54c | 52.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flames | 79c | 49.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Flames | 72c | 42.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Golden Knights | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…bc73backed Golden Knights | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Flames | 53c | 39.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden Knights | 47c | 38.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Flames | 68c | 36.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Flames | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Golden Knights | 56c | 34.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Flames | 54c | 33.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Flames | 75c | 29.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Flames | 54c | 29.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Flames | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Golden Knights | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Golden Knights | 45c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Flames | 53c | 28.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Flames | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Golden Knights | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flames | 67c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Flames | 55c | 18.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Flames vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.