TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LOUD vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatan Esportsof LOUD, Leviatan Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6842…20d0backed Leviatan Esports47c11,318$5,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,991.081,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Leviatan Esports43c7,319$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.11,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Leviatan Esports26c6,733$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.663,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed LOUD52c5,971$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.4318554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatan Esports61c5,505$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.21,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Leviatan Esports49c4,815$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.351,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Leviatan Esports52c4,682$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.271,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LOUD76c4,342$3,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.231,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LOUD44c3,287$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.361,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked LOUD67c3,036$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.2926164.4%168 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LOUD80c3,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed LOUD34c2,454$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.7517155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1e…4123backed LOUD74c2,451$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.869851%50 W · 48 L-9.2wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked LOUD45c2,389$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.8866437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked LOUD59c2,341$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.8167553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed LOUD50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Leviatan Esports51c1,984$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.772,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Leviatan Esports20c1,523$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.561,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Leviatan Esports20c1,505$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.882,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked LOUD1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15365.6%2 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked LOUD1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15350%0 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed LOUD26c1,479$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7435346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Leviatan Esports49c1,477$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.1123751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed LOUD75c1,315$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.0626062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Leviatan Esports38c1,240$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.6556341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked LOUD74c1,209$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.021,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Leviatan Esports74c1,104$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.081,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LOUD53c1,007$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.5282953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed LOUD1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed LOUD1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.2wins0.00per pick1cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed LOUD1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed LOUD80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Leviatan Esports56c990.37$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.0983560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed Leviatan Esports24c960.99$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.9117032.9%56 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248d…2885backed LOUD53c946.57$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.476563.1%41 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed LOUD50c928.21$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.8744042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LOUD80c901.62$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.2870456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked LOUD30c869.29$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.625343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed LOUD80c809.45$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.561,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked LOUD2c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Leviatan Esports31c779.65$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.9626443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed LOUD74c769.61$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.5116155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Leviatan Esports48c764.07$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.321,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed Leviatan Esports45c750.69$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.6613647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ce…cc35backed LOUD52c747.63$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4712552%65 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Leviatan Esports14c723.83$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.227869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed LOUD74c698.92$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.21,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed LOUD57c678.09$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.8414348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf28…db5dbacked LOUD45c652.13$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.828259.8%49 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb05…ed70backed LOUD54c647.28$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.118458.3%49 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed LOUD72c581.11$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.41,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Leviatan Esports28c550$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39635243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LOUD48c542.94$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.833,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Leviatan Esports21c517.28$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.110738.3%41 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e68…ee87backed LOUD55c510.94$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.2110650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked LOUD19c500.74$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.141,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05df…e268backed Leviatan Esports57c493.12$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.7123241.4%96 W · 136 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed LOUD49c456.61$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.991,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked LOUD43c437.12$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.961,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked LOUD22c433.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3216555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Leviatan Esports20c428.43$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Leviatan Esports28c379.27$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0196250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Leviatan Esports26c375$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.518121%38 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Leviatan Esports40c362.09$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.611,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed LOUD13c344.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.91,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3976…d68ebacked Leviatan Esports60c344.39$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1911630.2%35 W · 81 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LOUD35c333.37$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.132,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x826c…cd27backed LOUD29c328.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.758245.1%37 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leviatan Esports38c314.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.332,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked LOUD64c293.51$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.748243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed LOUD69c289.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.571,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed LOUD75c265.95$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4685746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Leviatan Esports56c254.58$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.221,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a12…ba9cbacked LOUD31c253.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0312128.1%34 W · 87 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af8…9f99backed LOUD79c250$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.530744%135 W · 172 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e9…a838backed LOUD30c248.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.768051.3%41 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Leviatan Esports26c220.52$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.191,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Leviatan Esports29c219.68$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.211,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Leviatan Esports33c218.14$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1546650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked LOUD58c216.72$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7633042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Leviatan Esports35c215.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9212047.5%57 W · 63 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LOUD74c212.31$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.782,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed LOUD46c200.63$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6939246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked LOUD56c197.09$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1136946.1%170 W · 199 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Leviatan Esports30c193.27$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2938659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e5…74f7backed LOUD29c192.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2112042.5%51 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Leviatan Esports27c191.88$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.071,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873d…97b5backed Leviatan Esports30c191.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8828924.6%71 W · 218 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LOUD80c189.54$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.641,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8b…c9ccbacked LOUD52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1210851.9%56 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked LOUD42c180.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.042,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed LOUD63c179.23$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5137660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65e0…abfbbacked Leviatan Esports25c179.07$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Leviatan Esports33c172.76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.751,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3682…07d6backed LOUD74c171.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.286573.8%48 W · 17 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd91…5d82backed LOUD35c170.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.536347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292d…1321backed LOUD29c163.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.19743.3%42 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed LOUD48c162.55$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9f…0f61backed LOUD52c160.31$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.361625%4 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed LOUD49c159$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.541,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.