CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa8f4e026745f4ac4d67272c3d0e329e87eefb43a8ebcf473129ec32fa1a90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, FUT Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b90…d8bfbacked FUT Esports | 48c | 1,799$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked FUT Esports | 46c | 1,509$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Vitality | 50c | 1,021$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.41 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports | 50c | 986.71$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.12 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed FUT Esports | 48c | 874.06$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.55 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…1391backed FUT Esports | 10c | 542.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed FUT Esports | 25c | 502.52$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…c792backed FUT Esports | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Vitality | 52c | 336.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Vitality | 58c | 299.56$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed FUT Esports | 49c | 267.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked FUT Esports | 41c | 253.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…df09backed Vitality | 59c | 252.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Vitality | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed FUT Esports | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5ea0backed FUT Esports | 40c | 247.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Vitality | 50c | 184$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…a2a7backed Vitality | 58c | 171.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Vitality | 52c | 133.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…e1e9backed Vitality | 52c | 99.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked FUT Esports | 30c | 76.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 349 | 43%150 W · 199 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Vitality | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 387 | 54.8%212 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…b271backed Vitality | 63c | 43.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…be70backed Vitality | 31c | 43.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Vitality | 58c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed FUT Esports | 50c | 37.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Vitality | 56c | 31.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked FUT Esports | 42c | 24.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Vitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)FUT Esports won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)Vitality won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)FUT Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.