MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1acbe53d5a9ee330dbc3a76b14f4ce191232790b7be5a4872abb590c2dc59927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 53c | 20,452$10,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,839.38 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Cardinals | 47c | 12,054$5,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,388.63 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 47c | 4,956$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.68 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 47c | 1,653$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 52c | 1,402$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.16 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 53c | 1,231$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.42 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Royals | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Cardinals | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Royals | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Royals | 16c | 687.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 40c | 412.36$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals | 39c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Royals | 53c | 376.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Cardinals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Royals | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 156.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Royals | 53c | 153$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Royals | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Royals | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Royals | 52c | 102.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Cardinals | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Royals | 51c | 99.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Royals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 47c | 84.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Royals | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Cardinals | 57c | 72.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Royals | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Royals | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 49c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Royals | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cardinals | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 50c | 49.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Cardinals | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Cardinals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…83bdbacked Cardinals | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Royals | 37c | 39.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Cardinals | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cardinals | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…adb8backed Royals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Royals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 52c | 34.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cardinals | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Cardinals | 48c | 28.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Cardinals | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…c396backed Royals | 52c | 24.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Royals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.