TailMyPicks
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x227a…a09abacked Toronto Tempo42c4,000$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces58c3,020$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.111,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Las Vegas Aces46c3,009$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.015050%25 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Toronto Tempo53c1,886$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.586750.7%34 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Toronto Tempo56c1,801$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Las Vegas Aces47c1,702$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.065945.8%27 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Las Vegas Aces46c1,626$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.5739450.5%199 W · 195 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Toronto Tempo54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9817946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Tempo53c1,300$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.994551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Toronto Tempo52c1,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9914060%84 W · 56 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7353…4b0dbacked Toronto Tempo54c930$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.25752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Toronto Tempo53c895.24$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.489751.5%50 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Toronto Tempo59c890$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8823149.4%114 W · 117 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Las Vegas Aces48c886.35$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.98146.9%38 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Las Vegas Aces48c857.51$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.7613649.3%67 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Las Vegas Aces58c832.18$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4725345.8%116 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Las Vegas Aces61c656.84$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4818157.5%104 W · 77 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Toronto Tempo18c614.18$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.547643.4%33 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces46c559.17$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.4893248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Las Vegas Aces47c422.5$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5432850.3%165 W · 163 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6241backed Toronto Tempo52c401.34$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces46c370.76$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.4585948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed Las Vegas Aces48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Las Vegas Aces44c277.89$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2279648.7%388 W · 408 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces48c271.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.111,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Las Vegas Aces61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.57550.7%38 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Las Vegas Aces58c241$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2212355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Las Vegas Aces58c239$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3836950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces45c221$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5542046.7%196 W · 224 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Tempo51c215.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11071245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Toronto Tempo53c187.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces45c140$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.733347.7%159 W · 174 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Las Vegas Aces48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.828758.5%168 W · 119 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Tempo54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.25147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Toronto Tempo61c101$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.617350.3%87 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Toronto Tempo30c96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.856455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Las Vegas Aces47c94.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2414445.1%65 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x770f…ac44backed Las Vegas Aces58c94.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.582441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces45c89.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3976142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Las Vegas Aces58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.615337.9%58 W · 95 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0811…1870backed Las Vegas Aces48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Toronto Tempo54c53.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.157655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Las Vegas Aces46c51.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.948551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fed…e9cabacked Las Vegas Aces49c51.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Las Vegas Aces58c49.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6324656.5%139 W · 107 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed Toronto Tempo52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Las Vegas Aces47c44.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3512359.3%73 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36ef…0172backed Las Vegas Aces58c37.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.931060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…70c5backed Toronto Tempo55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6b…7823backed Toronto Tempo53c35.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192321.7%5 W · 18 L-7.1wins-0.31per pick52cpaid-57.8%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Las Vegas Aces46c34.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8910543.8%46 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Toronto Tempo56c34.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Toronto Tempo42c31.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Las Vegas Aces63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Tempo53c29.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7665751.4%338 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Las Vegas Aces45c24.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.338939.3%35 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c1b…85c8backed Las Vegas Aces50c22.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0816151.6%83 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Las Vegas Aces47c22.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.677470.3%52 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x98e8…eebfbacked Las Vegas Aces58c22.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…00d5backed Las Vegas Aces58c18.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73540%14 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0486…8eb9backed Toronto Tempo55c18.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.