TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,287 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Under60c1,001$604 inWon+$397.144,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over39c632.74$247 inLost-$246.774450%22 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over40c558.39$223 inLost-$223.246,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under61c528.65$322 inWon+$206.175,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over40c441.59$175 inLost-$175.128,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c214$139 inWon+$74.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over39c194$76 inLost-$75.618,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under61c163.88$100 inWon+$63.8837256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Under61c80$49 inWon+$31.213025.4%33 W · 97 L-17.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under58c53.81$31 inWon+$22.61,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over40c50$20 inLost-$202,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under61c48.9$30 inWon+$19.22,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under64c44.07$28 inWon+$15.8711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over39c38.46$15 inLost-$1526853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over42c28.14$12 inLost-$11.822,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.