TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes25c1,016$251 inWon+$764.318,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e4…a1adbacked Yes42c599.99$253 inWon+$346.9913264.4%85 W · 47 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x094d…5a65backed No51c293.08$150 inLost-$1504151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed No55c260.08$143 inLost-$143.0478052.2%407 W · 373 L+22.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked No78c244$190 inLost-$190.325450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes49c140$69 inWon+$71.41,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed No55c136.44$75 inLost-$75.0462554.2%339 W · 286 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed No79c119.62$94 inLost-$9413858.7%81 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Yes63c95$60 inWon+$356755.2%37 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes22c84.62$19 inWon+$6688046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed No77c69.33$54 inLost-$53.6426752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes39c63.7$25 inWon+$38.975,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No32c57.08$18 inLost-$18.0147743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed No55c55$30 inLost-$30.2545550.3%229 W · 226 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Yes38c52.08$20 inWon+$32.2990446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No67c40$27 inLost-$26.81,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…d0a8backed No76c40$30 inLost-$30.43063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed Yes68c40$27 inWon+$12.84658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed No78c20$16 inLost-$15.630454.3%165 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.