MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48e6842350a12b4caef8f9c076ee496c6232ff0620d0f9f931b2227f5476f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 13,087$7,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,968.8 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 27c | 5,798$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,234.04 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 55c | 1,969$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.05 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Under | 56c | 1,595$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 1,186$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Under | 26c | 596.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Under | 25c | 537$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…70d9backed Under | 29c | 464.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 74c | 438.17$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.25 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked Under | 26c | 394.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 56c | 364.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…893dbacked Under | 56c | 360.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 55c | 343.64$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 27c | 192.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 72c | 172.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…a015backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 55c | 117.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 77c | 91.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked Under | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 46c | 63.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 55c | 39.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 55c | 38.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Under | 55c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 56c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 74c | 23.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Under | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.