TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Over49c114,404$56,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,482.223948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under51c68,786$34,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,802.4586548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Under51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,35011656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under49c14,548$7,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,419.4892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c12,845$6,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,513.5111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under51c10,344$5,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.54,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over50c7,449$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,724.732,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Under48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.993855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c4,796$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.81,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over51c4,001$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.5120350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over50c3,624$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.863,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over51c2,231$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.044,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under50c2,222$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1111,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c2,141$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.645,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under49c1,800$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91886653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under51c1,662$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.528154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.9722753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over53c1,138$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4138353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Under54c1,019$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.371,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c956.97$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.946,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under47c822.96$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.171,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over44c743.19$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.544,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c641.21$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.958,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over53c625.75$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.653,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over48c419.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.622448.7%109 W · 115 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017545.7%80 W · 95 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under49c308.82$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under47c293.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under24c260$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6643954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed Under8c246.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick7cpaid+563.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7c…6007backed Under57c168.86$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.613070%21 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Under49c163.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2743560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a2…cfa5backed Over50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7e…fdc3backed Under51c157.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7539948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over51c129.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.21,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under51c126$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.741,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under49c125.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.498,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3f…7320backed Over51c101.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5099447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over52c97.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.432,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over42c87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1170546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…a74dbacked Under51c70.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.591668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over51c63.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.162,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Under48c61.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9169351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3255…ffb9backed Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018053.9%97 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Under52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6921751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba56…10e8backed Under53c56.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1115540.6%63 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…0f28backed Over50c50.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…4928backed Over30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153839.5%15 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under42c49.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.666344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under50c44.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Over31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.477836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under50c39.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6539053.6%209 W · 181 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2225448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Under54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0419252.6%101 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Over51c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3625850.4%130 W · 128 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked Under50c31.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8313252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ca…2d82backed Over50c29.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.934445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece7…3353backed Over52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d52…6236backed Over51c26.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.562638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over53c25.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x266c…df0fbacked Under51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8a…6494backed Under51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Under51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2517953.1%95 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over50c22.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2459749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over49c20.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.141,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over50c20.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Over51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.255643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6a58backed Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412753.5%68 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.