MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7eaa8cc4a9bbab5064d3c1dab9d809b44af93e7b3549e2517a4201dee890a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Miami Marlins | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 779$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 733.09$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 574.41$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 561.8$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 551.99$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 548.77$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 520.35$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 431.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 397.24$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…fc54backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 385.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 382$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 317$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 202$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 196.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 164.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 156.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 147.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 143.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 138.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 96.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 95.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 91.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 82.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 76.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 68.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 63.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 58.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 38.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 34.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…82e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.