TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,641 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks67c2,906$1,958 inWon+$948.328,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins33c2,855$941 inLost-$941.0811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks70c406.64$287 inWon+$120.068,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Miami Marlins32c399.98$128 inLost-$127.991,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c339.3$230 inWon+$109.3614858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c199.99$136 inWon+$646,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins30c196.05$59 inLost-$58.6912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins23c183$42 inLost-$42.091,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Miami Marlins23c181$42 inLost-$41.6363943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins22c160.39$35 inLost-$35.292,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins30c152.89$45 inLost-$45.433,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins31c135.32$42 inLost-$42.116,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c96.33$65 inWon+$31.792,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks69c88.69$61 inWon+$27.492,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks72c73.51$53 inWon+$20.582,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks67c44$29 inWon+$14.521,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins28c40$11 inLost-$11.277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks76c23.64$18 inWon+$5.664,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Arizona Diamondbacks74c22.38$17 inWon+$5.7283053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Arizona Diamondbacks74c21.12$16 inWon+$5.472655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c17.58$12 inWon+$5.813357.9%77 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…b4b4backed Arizona Diamondbacks77c16.11$12 inWon+$3.712650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Arizona Diamondbacks76c13.73$10 inWon+$3.2928456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.