MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f399eeb8abe73fa6f78f52af8f995e9196683ee7639a69980494681ac319c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 1,370$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 42c | 891.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 76c | 745.3$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 693.52$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 60c | 591.63$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.06 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 376.79$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…4555backed Under | 43c | 239.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 65c | 227.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 39c | 213.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 11c | 211.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 206.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 64c | 205$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 205$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 44c | 170.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 144.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 133.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 58c | 128.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 127.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 97.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 80c | 67.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.