MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe108a8768d0936a12c6c3050c2c85241d5fc3d8e5406e6c3c4c9393ff8ce1a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 13,595$8,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,133.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 10,132$4,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,753.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 8,000$5,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…75d9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 7,128$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 4,733$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.17 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 3,716$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 3,599$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 3,375$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 2,324$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,658$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 1,279$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 1,260$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.03 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 1,087$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 779.12$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 570.71$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 549.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 493.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 399.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 330.85$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 329$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 313.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 306.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 250.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 250.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 228.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 219.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 205.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 172.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 172.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 166.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 162.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 162.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 159.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 144.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 119.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 116.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 93.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 93.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 86.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 74.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…356bbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 66.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 56.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 55.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 54.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 44.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 37.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 34.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 34.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 31.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 30.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 27.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 26.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 25.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…82e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.