TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TNCof Lazer Cats, TNC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…0aa1backed Lazer Cats30c4,750$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.791,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TNC51c4,468$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.1667951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked TNC78c4,284$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.41,02052.2%532 W · 488 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lazer Cats18c3,099$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.452,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed TNC50c2,766$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.5185358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lazer Cats12c2,609$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.755,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed TNC78c2,450$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52764058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed TNC59c2,009$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.1320750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Lazer Cats13c1,851$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.022,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc39d…4f49backed TNC60c1,722$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lazer Cats19c1,518$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.112,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked TNC71c1,207$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1214939.6%59 W · 90 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Lazer Cats49c1,035$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50732542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Lazer Cats49c1,012$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.887940.5%32 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51f9…19a0backed TNC73c1,003$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.712090%18 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+74.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Lazer Cats50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020842.8%89 W · 119 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed Lazer Cats50c982.78$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.325950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked TNC52c946.19$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4727552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lazer Cats12c899.97$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.291,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Lazer Cats26c899.95$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.42,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Lazer Cats49c877$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.45444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Lazer Cats51c854.9$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43622045.5%100 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TNC48c836.51$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.35,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2469…4812backed Lazer Cats9c819.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed TNC59c799.26$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9345565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Lazer Cats50c786$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.96445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Lazer Cats12c706.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7548635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Lazer Cats15c646.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0866446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed TNC48c621.91$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.452,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Lazer Cats45c598.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.3766436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed TNC54c555$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.377351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3573…4b4dbacked Lazer Cats12c554.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.01137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Lazer Cats41c531.98$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.115,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Lazer Cats48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24023129%67 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Lazer Cats18c499.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.272,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Lazer Cats21c476.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.433,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Lazer Cats49c471.43$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23121653.2%115 W · 101 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Lazer Cats16c462.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5564046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lazer Cats27c451.5$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.753,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed Lazer Cats33c449.58$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4616350.3%82 W · 81 L+14.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Lazer Cats24c449$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3731647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lazer Cats23c405.01$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.421,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed TNC66c397.57$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.730155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed TNC69c382.06$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2127459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Lazer Cats50c380$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Lazer Cats23c375.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6378043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed TNC77c325.48$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4218754%101 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed TNC51c323.97$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7465254.3%354 W · 298 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2313…e9c3backed Lazer Cats49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Lazer Cats46c305$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0521744.7%97 W · 120 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Lazer Cats49c304.08$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14950341.6%209 W · 294 L+1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Lazer Cats8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416511.5%19 W · 146 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…7a70backed Lazer Cats30c280.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7915540%62 W · 93 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…09e3backed Lazer Cats49c277.35$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.96251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Lazer Cats40c275.12$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.591,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Lazer Cats15c271.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.474,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Lazer Cats38c266$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3483643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…90d0backed TNC69c261.86$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.111471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Lazer Cats49c260$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.42147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Lazer Cats45c259.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.21,04139.9%415 W · 626 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Lazer Cats30c253.12$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7716036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Lazer Cats54c252.31$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13722044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x202f…7b58backed Lazer Cats41c241.46$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Lazer Cats21c240$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.496,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Lazer Cats49c239.94$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5714331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd816…a60ebacked Lazer Cats49c212.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed TNC49c203.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lazer Cats35c194.21$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.894,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed TNC78c184.08$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9852750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Lazer Cats58c179.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6492145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Lazer Cats51c165.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.419749.5%48 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Lazer Cats14c161.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1891743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da6…107abacked TNC77c157.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7312948.8%63 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Lazer Cats41c153.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6344344%195 W · 248 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Lazer Cats17c125.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9841450.7%210 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Lazer Cats29c119.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3265946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed TNC68c111$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.942,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Lazer Cats50c104.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4123732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Lazer Cats32c101.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.656049.8%279 W · 281 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Lazer Cats39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.176943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Lazer Cats40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4065946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Lazer Cats20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8397…0dbbbacked Lazer Cats50c94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed TNC63c93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.412,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Lazer Cats24c91.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0521741.5%90 W · 127 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed TNC59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.91,00748.5%488 W · 519 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Lazer Cats43c87.61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.573,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Lazer Cats51c83.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1428052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Lazer Cats22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.540635.7%145 W · 261 L-33.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked TNC66c75.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8415455.2%85 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed TNC54c72.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0822059.1%130 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Lazer Cats34c70.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0133146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Lazer Cats34c70.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2417449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked TNC78c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3122954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Lazer Cats50c68.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.136536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed Lazer Cats49c57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9324940.6%101 W · 148 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked TNC72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5644675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507c…6c0cbacked Lazer Cats57c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.364355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd652…6354backed Lazer Cats24c45.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8113757.7%79 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2392…ed75backed TNC77c40.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.364148.8%20 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.