TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-MINLATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bebopof ex-MINLATE, Bebop
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Bebop68c7,087$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.4475652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Bebop68c4,340$2,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.0484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed ex-MINLATE33c3,677$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.3846243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Bebop71c3,431$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.949646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Bebop69c2,676$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.532853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Bebop65c2,558$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.1360848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d87…a82bbacked ex-MINLATE23c2,519$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.255244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-MINLATE39c2,437$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.536,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…8584backed ex-MINLATE43c2,352$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked ex-MINLATE32c2,304$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.8132536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Bebop22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Bebop69c1,992$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Bebop25c1,937$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.458750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-MINLATE28c1,912$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.775,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Bebop52c1,832$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.836253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed ex-MINLATE67c1,665$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.592,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Bebop70c1,409$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.433759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed ex-MINLATE31c1,399$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.6921945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed ex-MINLATE32c1,370$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.733756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ba…b283backed Bebop66c1,337$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.887100%7 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+184.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed ex-MINLATE12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Bebop47c1,318$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.84,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…1338backed ex-MINLATE33c1,300$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Bebop68c1,139$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.4457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Bebop51c1,127$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.6843455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed ex-MINLATE31c1,085$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2825147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked ex-MINLATE31c1,042$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9914057.9%81 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed ex-MINLATE29c1,019$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed ex-MINLATE33c875.94$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc188…3857backed ex-MINLATE72c863.63$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Bebop73c791.04$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8517849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Bebop66c773.88$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.121,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked ex-MINLATE33c771.31$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.5318341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Bebop48c767.31$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.175358.5%31 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed ex-MINLATE32c705.13$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5233044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bebop63c693.13$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.267,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Bebop54c653.25$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.8557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Bebop38c644.05$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.213043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked ex-MINLATE28c600$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.417625%19 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20c5…7452backed Bebop65c579.6$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.642673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed ex-MINLATE32c575.52$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.172240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed ex-MINLATE53c574.41$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3720059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Bebop48c548.79$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.995,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed ex-MINLATE31c499.35$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.815141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd94d…fc49backed ex-MINLATE38c498.08$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed ex-MINLATE32c454.18$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.852437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed ex-MINLATE72c453.29$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.823072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x72d5…5bbebacked ex-MINLATE80c442.93$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.147162%44 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b5…5b6abacked ex-MINLATE20c428.4$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.681030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+201.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed ex-MINLATE31c427.54$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5424840.7%101 W · 147 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed ex-MINLATE57c427.09$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.445438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed ex-MINLATE31c426.63$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2539245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed ex-MINLATE31c415.89$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9317847.2%84 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…e9b4backed ex-MINLATE42c413.66$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.744348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed ex-MINLATE49c371.69$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0752951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b7f…a8e5backed ex-MINLATE28c369.4$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.468641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…2b82backed ex-MINLATE32c363.36$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.271450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…eacdbacked ex-MINLATE13c358.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e65…694fbacked ex-MINLATE67c353.6$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.393438.2%13 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-MINLATE37c347.29$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.392,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed Bebop58c335.84$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1317759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd067…9b9abacked Bebop57c331.97$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1345663.6%290 W · 166 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Bebop59c327.34$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2128660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ex-MINLATE32c313.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.151,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked ex-MINLATE47c312.17$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.421,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed ex-MINLATE33c310.34$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.418544.7%38 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Bebop65c307.69$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4316947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked ex-MINLATE56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16820358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Bebop70c287.3$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.885863.8%37 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked ex-MINLATE55c284.49$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4540652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed ex-MINLATE19c282$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed ex-MINLATE42c279.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5650043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Bebop55c277.9$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.931452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbace…6a61backed ex-MINLATE54c275.46$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Bebop60c266.84$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab27…0c65backed ex-MINLATE22c262.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.425162.7%32 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed ex-MINLATE36c253.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3515358.2%89 W · 64 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked ex-MINLATE32c252.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3314839.2%58 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Bebop59c246.13$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.912,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed ex-MINLATE18c245.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Bebop45c245.58$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.582,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bebop73c245.56$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.922,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Bebop50c244.38$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.673,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed ex-MINLATE51c242.64$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.845123.5%12 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked Bebop63c238.41$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7519055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed ex-MINLATE33c225.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3817247.7%82 W · 90 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4238…3734backed ex-MINLATE32c225.01$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0213445.5%61 W · 73 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40ac…941bbacked Bebop60c219.81$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed ex-MINLATE44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6430527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Bebop36c212.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.219050%95 W · 95 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5f…d393backed ex-MINLATE31c211.85$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.673844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-MINLATE35c210.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.15,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed ex-MINLATE31c206.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.896041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed Bebop28c201.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.271758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Bebop53c199.43$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.682,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8b9f…b921backed ex-MINLATE74c195.73$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.693525.7%9 W · 26 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-48.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Bebop59c193.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6723858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-MINLATE47c192.05$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.774,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe2a…bff2backed Bebop54c189.44$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.252250%11 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc298…9369backed Bebop74c188.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.