Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bef035225cbb35b0edc5e491c928538f4b3511e74028bf086c9a8c93f2814b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 753.63$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 651.22$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 54c | 433.35$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.45 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 429.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 368.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 53c | 334.81$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 56c | 308.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 79c | 265.11$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 48c | 224.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 46c | 221.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 203.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 196$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 183$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 173.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 46c | 164.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 162.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 43c | 152.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 51c | 148.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 50c | 146.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 142.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 139.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 73c | 135.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 129.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 123.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 31c | 120.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 119.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 117.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 43c | 115.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 111.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 111.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 111.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 110.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 33c | 104.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 101.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 98.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 72c | 88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 87.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 86.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 43c | 84.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…646cbacked Yes | 33c | 81.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 37c | 80.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 79.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 74.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 30c | 70.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 69.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 69.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 42c | 60.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked No | 65c | 58.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 34c | 57.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 79c | 53.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 43c | 51.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 69c | 49.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 43.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 43.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 42.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 69c | 39.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 44c | 39.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 75c | 38.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 36.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 33c | 35.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 34.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 33.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 33.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 68c | 31.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 29.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 35c | 29.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 28.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 52c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…d7e7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 66c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 15.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.