Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5648393f16ef0b29af4de0afae9cfda80cfdbb9d571757f2cd99afda5c12f7d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 0c | 35,707$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed No | 58c | 3,341$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 3,058$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 927.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 832.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 652.83$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 578.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 549.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…bab7backed Yes | 13c | 514.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 78c | 429.49$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 392.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 31c | 370.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 358.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 355.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 318.07$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 300.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 298$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 11c | 284.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 16c | 248.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 51c | 246.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 16c | 222.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 69c | 185.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 183$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 169$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 8c | 168$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 59c | 162.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 157.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 153.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Yes | 69c | 147.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 48c | 143.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 13c | 139.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 73c | 137.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 41c | 135.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 130.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 16c | 124.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 122.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 21c | 121.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 61c | 117.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 108.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 50c | 103.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 45c | 94.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 54c | 93.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 87.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 85.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 83.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 16c | 77.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 70.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 37c | 70.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 69.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 70c | 65.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 30c | 63.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 62.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 73c | 61.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 53c | 61.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 50c | 58.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 49.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 58c | 43.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 41.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed No | 50c | 39.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 38.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 55c | 38.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 36.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 30.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 65c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 62c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.